We now have most of the Kentucky Derby prep races in the books and I’ve seen many top 5-10 rankings change quite a bit over the last couple of weeks. Last weekend, we saw undefeated Gemologist get his most important victory to date by outlasting Alpha at the wire to take the Grade 1 Resorts World Casino Wood Memorial at Aqueduct. He is now 5 for 5 in his career and gives trainer Todd Pletcher his best chance at winning the Derby. Pletcher still has a chance to get to the Derby with Risen Star Stakes winners El Padrino, but he will need help or a couple of horses not enter. El Padrino sits just outside the top 20 with $250,000 of graded earnings. Kentucky bred, but mostly European raced Daddy Long Legs is undecided on whether to make the trip to Kentucky. He just won the UAE Derby (G2) on March 31 at Meydan Race Course in Dubai.
Later on April 7th at Santa Anita, Creative Cause, who many had as their #1 ranked Derby horse was defeated by I’ll Have Another in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). That gave trainer Doug O’Neill back to back graded wins with the Flower Alley chestnut colt and punched his ticket to Louisville. He currently sits with $570,000 in earnings. Creative Cause has $836,000 in earnings due to his win this year in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) and wins last year in the Norfolk Stakes (G1) and Best Pal Stakes (G2).
The previous weekend saw Union Rags, the other colt who many have or had at the top of the rankings upset in the Florida Derby (G1) and Mark Valeski, Rousing Sermon upset by 109-1 longshot in the Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds.
So what now? With so many favorites getting beat, and new horses coming up with big wins. Who is the favorite to win the 2012 Kentucky Derby?
Here are Our Selections as of today with the Blue Grass Stakes, Arkansas Derby and Coolmore Lexington Stakes remaining. You might be surprised to see who is at the top.