In lieu of the Grade 1 upsets last weekend, I went back and reviewed the Grade 1 races so far in the 2010 racing to see how many favorites won versus longshots. As you will see, the great horses are great for a reason. The upsets, well, they are called upsets for a reason. Most times they won’t repeat.
2010 MULTIPLE GRADE 1 STAKES WINNERS
The following horses join a select group by winning more than one Grade 1 race in a season let alone over a career. Congratulations!
Santa Margarita Handicap – Zenyatta (1/5 favorite)
Apple Blossom Handicap OP – Zenyatta (1/9 favorite)
Vanity Handicap HOL – Zenyatta (2/5 favorite)
Clement L. Hirsch Stakes DMR – Zenyatta (1/9 favorite)
Lady’s Secret Handicap OTH – Zenyatta (1/9 favorite)
Frank E. Kilroe Mile SA – Proviso (9/2)
Just A Game Stakes BEL – Proviso (Even favorite)
Diana Stakes SAR – Proviso (2-1)
First Lady Stakes KEE – Proviso (6/5 favorite)
Stephen Foster Handicap CD – Blame (7/2)
Whitney Handicap SAR – Blame (7/2)
Breeders’ Cup Classic KEE – Blame (5-1)
Las Virgenes Stakes SA – Blind Luck (1/5 favorite)
Kentucky Oaks CD – Blind Luck (6/5 favorite)
Alabama Stakes SAR – Blind Luck (9/5)
Metropolitan Handicap BEL – Quality Road (1/5 favorite)
Woodward Stakes SAR – Quality Road (2/5 favorite)
Donn Handicap GP – Quality Road (2/5 favorite)
Preakness Stakes PIM – Lookin at Lucky (5/2)
Haskell Invitational MTH – Lookin At Lucky (6/5 favorite)
Acorn Stakes BEL – Champagne D’Oro (39-1)
Test Stakes SAR – Champagne D’Oro (5-1)
Manhattan Handicap BEL – Winchester (21-1)
Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational Stakes BEL – Winchester (7/2)
Ogden Phipps Handicap BEL – Life at Ten (2-1)
Beldame Stakes BEL – Life At Ten (3/2)
Mother Goose Stakes BEL – Devil May Care (4/5 favorite)
Coaching Club American Oaks SAR – Devil May Care (3/5 favorite)
American Oaks Stakes HOL – Harmonious (5/2)
Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup Stakes KEE – Harmonious (5/2 favorite)
Ashland Stakes KEE – Evening Jewel (5-1)
Del Mar Oaks DMR – Evening Jewel (7/5 favorite)
Pacific Classic Stakes DMR – Richard’s Kid (9/2)
Goodwood Stakes OTH – Richard’s Kid (8-1)
Man O’War Stakes BEL – Gio Ponti (2/5 favorite)
Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes KEE – Gio Ponti (9/5 favorite)
Champagne Stakes BEL – Uncle Mo (1/5 favorite)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile KEE – Uncle Mo (7/5 favorite)
Bing Crosby Stakes DMR – Smiling Tiger (7-1)
Ancient Title Stakes OTH – Smiling Tiger (7/2)
From the multiple Grade 1 winners above, favorites won 21 of 40 races for 52.5%. Only four times did a horse from above win at odds of 5-1 or higher. The average winning odds from the multiple Grade 1 winners was 3.5 to 1. The multiple winners win when they are supposed to.
2010 GRADE 1 STAKES WINNERS
The following horses accomplished what most horses can’t do in a racing career and that is win a Grade 1 race. Congratulations!
Santa Monica Handicap SA – Gabby’s Golden Gal (11-1)
Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap GP – Court Vision (4/5 favorite)
Santa Anita Handicap SA – Misremembered (4-1)
Santa Anita Oaks SA – Crisp (5-1)
Florida Derby GP – Ice Box (20-1)
Wood Memorial Stakes AQU – Eskendereya (2/5 favorite)
Carter Handicap AQU – Warrior’s Reward (7/2)
Santa Anita Derby SA – Sidney’s Candy (7/2)
Vinery Madison Stakes KEE – Dr Zic (15-1)
Maker’s Mark Mile Stakes KEE – Karelian (5/2)
Toyota Blue Grass Stakes KEE – Stately Victor (40-1)
Arkansas Derby OP – Line of David (17-1)
Woodford Reserve Turf Classic CD – General Quarters (8-1)
Kentucky Derby CD – Super Saver (8-1)
Humana Distaff Stakes CD – Mona De Momma (8-1)
Gamely Stakes HOL – Tuscan Evening (4/5 favorite)
Shoemaker Mile HOL – Victor’s Cry (21-1)
Belmont Stakes BEL – Drosselmeyer (13-1)
Charles Whittingham Memorial Handicap HOL – Acclamation (3-1)
United Nations Stakes MTH – Chinchon (7/2)
Prioress Stakes BEL – Franny Freud (3/5 favorite)
Princess Rooney Handicap CRC – Jessica is Back (8-1)
Triple Bend Handicap HOL – E Z’s Gentleman (7/2)
Hollywood Gold Cup HOL – Awesome Gem (8-1)
Eddie Read Stakes DMR – The Usual Q.T. (7/5 favorite)
Ruffian Handicap SAR – Malibu Prayer (2-1)
Alfred G. Vanderbilt Handicap SAR – MajesticPerfection (Even favorite)
Sword Dancer Invitational Stakes SAR – Telling (10-1 favorite)
Secretariat Stakes AP – Paddy O’Prado (2/5 favorite)
Arlington Million Stakes AP – Debussy (11-1)
Beverly D. Stakes AP – Eclair de Lune (6-1)
Pat O’Brien Stakes DMR – El Brujo (7/2)
Ballerina Stakes SAR – Rightly So (9/2)
King’s Bishop Stakes SAR – Discreetly Mine (Even favorite)
Travers Stakes SAR – Afleet Express (7-1) LAST RACE
Personal Ensign Stakes SAR – Persistently (21-1)
Darley Debutante DMR – Tell A Kelly (9/2)
Forego Stakes SAR – Here Comes Ben (9-1)
Spinaway Stakes SAR – R Heat Lightning (4-1)
Hopeful Stakes SAR – Boys at Tosconova (2/5 favorite)
Del Mar Futurity DMR – J P’s Gusto (4/5 favorite)
Garden City Stakes BEL – Check the Label (Even favorite)
Flower Bowl Invitational Stakes BEL – Ave (10-1)
Jockey Club Gold Cup BEL – Haynesfield (7-1)
Vosburgh Stakes BEL – Girolamo (2-1 favorite)
Yellow Ribbon Stakes OTH – Hibaayeb (3-1)
Norfolk Stakes OTH – Jaycito (3-1)
Oak Leaf Stakes OTH – Rigoletta (32-1)
Clement L. Hirsch Turf Championship OTH – Champ Pegasus (3/2 favorite)
Darley Alcibiades Stakes KEE – Wickedly Perfect (3/2 favorite)
Frizette Stakes BEL – A Z Warrior (7/2)
Jamaica Handicap BEL – Prince Will I Am (9-1)
Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity Stakes KEE – J B’s Thunder (5-1)
Juddmonte Spinster Stakes KEE – Acoma (23-1)
Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies KEE – Awesome Feather (4-1 favorite)
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf KEE – Shared Account (46-1)
Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint KEE – Dubai Majesty (8-1)
Breeders’ Cup Ladies’ Classic KEE – Unrivaled Belle (7-1)
Breeders’ Cup Mile KEE – Goldikova (6/5 favorite)
Breeders’ Cup Turf KEE – Dangerous Midge (8-1)
Breeders’ Cup Sprint CD – Big Drama (5-1)
Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile CD – Dakota Phone (37-1)
Hollywood Turf Cup HOL – Unusual Suspect (10-1)
Clark Handicap CD – Giant Oak (11-1)
Matriarch Stakes HOL – Gypsy’s Warning (7/2)
Gazelle Stakes AQU – No Such Word (9/5 Favorite)
Cigar Mile AQU – Jersey Town (34-1)
Hollywood Derby HOL – Haimish Hy (11-1)
From the individual Grade 1 winners above, favorites won only 17 of 68 races for 25%. It shows that the great horses win more often when they are supposed to win. For the most part when a horse wins a Grade 1 when they aren’t supposed to it comes with great betting odds. The average winning odds from the single Grade 1 winners was 8.6 to 1. 19 times the winner was 10-1 or higher. 35 times they were 5-1 or higher. Wow!
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Good stuff, but there is a bias in the statistics that needs to be factored. The more accomplished a horse is, the more likely he/she is to scare away rivals. Thus multiple Grade 1 winners lower their odds and increase their chances of winning with each success.
It is also telling that Blame was consistently on the high-end odds-wise among the multiple Gr1 winners, meaning he rarely garnered much respect. It is funny how many are saying he should be Horse of the Year as the best horse all year, but in terms of his odds, he was never considered the best horse all year until after the Classic.
Good post. Thanks for taking time to give your input. It’s funny you mention Blame. That was going to be my next blog post. The odds definitely show that he didn’t get any respect among the best horses in the country. All he did was win three Grade 1 races including a victory over Zenyatta. Sure you could say that she didn’t get a good ride etc but that is horse racing. You have run the race.