This is where the fun begins, well, at least for racing fans and those who thoroughly enjoy watching which three year olds
will separate themselves from now until the Kentucky Derby. This Sunday at Gulfstream Park, we will get a chance to see arguably the two top colts in the nation go head to head in the Grade 2 Fasig-Tipton Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Gulfstream Park – Fasig-Tipton Fountaion of Youth Stakes (G2) – $400,000 – 1 1/16 miles – Dirt
1. Neck ‘n Neck (KY) – Jose Lezcano – 116 – Ian Wilkes
2. Algorithms (KY) – Javier Castellano – 120 – Todd Pletcher
3. Fort Loudon (FL) – Rajiv Maragh – 120 – Stanley Gold
4. Casual Trick (KY) – Corey Nakatani – 116 – Nick Zito
5. Discreet Dancer (FL) – John Velazquez – 116 – Todd Pletcher
6. News Pending (KY) – Kent Desormeaux – 116 – Dale Romans
7. Union Rags (KY) – Julien Leparoux – 122 – Michael Matz
8. Csaba (KY) – Paco Lopez – 116 – Philip Gleaves
The favorite come post time will most likely be the Michael Matz trained Union Rags. He was a head away from being crowned two year old male champion. That loss came in the Grey Goose Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he just couldn’t catch Hansen who had gone gate to wire to win the Grade 1 event. The Dixie Union colt had won his first three races impressively by a combined 14 1/4 lengths. He won the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes by 5 1/4 lengths over Alpha (who just easily won the Grade 3 Withers) and 7 1/4 lengths in the Grade 2 Three Chimneys Saratoga Special Stakes at Saratoga. He stalks the lead and makes his strong move as they turn for home. His works leading into the race have been good, but nothing stellar. It will be interesting to see how he performs with the three and a half month layoff.
The horse who many feel with challenge Union Rags and quite possibly win this race is the Todd Pletcher trained Algorithms. The Bernardini colt has been just as impressive in winning all three of his races. He has looked better with each race. He won his maiden open by 5 1/4 lengths at Belmont Park on June 3 going five furlongs in 57.55. His next start wouldn’t be until December 16 where he sat off the leaders early on, then mowed them down to win by a length in an Allowance Optional Claiming $75,000 at Gulfstream Park. He ran 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:15.51. A little over a second off the track record. His last race, the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at Guflstream was his best so far. Not just because he defeated Hansen, the reiging two year old male champion, but he did it on a sloppy track and pulling away to win by 5 lengths. That race was one mile and run in 1:36.17. Decent considering the conditions. This will be his first time at 1 1/16 miles, but I don’t see the additional 1/16 mile hindering him.
So who of the other five horses could pull off the upset?
Pletcher has another up and coming colt from a sire who seems to be delivering winners on a consistent basis. Discreet Dancer by Discreet Cat (winner of the 2006 Grade 1 Cigar Mile) also brings in a perfect record. He’s won both of his races including his latest, a 5 1/2 lengths victory in an Allowance Optional Claiming $75,000 at Gulfstream Park on January 7. He went gate to wire over the one mile race and finished with a time of 1:36.32. He was never challenged on the front end early as he posted 24.19 first the 1/4 mile. He picked things up as the race wore on. The 1/2 mile went in 47.25 and six furlongs in 1:11.42. If he can get the lead on Sunday, this colt might be to tough to catch up too. The only other horse who has shown speed is the outside horse Csaba. He doesn’t have the true speed that Discreet Dancer has and dropped back on a couple of occasions when trying to fight for it. Discreet Dancer is coming off a bullet work on February 20 where he breezed 5 furlongs in 1:00.24.
PREDICTION: I expect Discreet Dancer to get the lead, and not be heavily contested, similar to his last race. He will have both Union Rags and Algorithms breathing down his neck. Algorithms gives Discreet Dancer 4 pounds and Union Rags gives him 6 pounds. That could be the difference. Look for yet another upset in the three year old division. Discreet Dancer will take this race with Union Rags coming in 2nd and Algorithms for third. It will be very close between all three though.
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