With two year olds, you just never know what you are going to get or see. It looks as if this could be a two horse race based off past performances, but again with two year olds, anything is possible as they continue to mature and improve. Aside from the top two, the odds in this race will be very good. It’s definitely worth a trifecta or superfecta wager.
Churchill Downs – Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G2) – 1 mile – Turf – $1,000,000
Date: November 4, 2011
Estimated Post Time: 4:50pm EST
1. My Gi Gi – Rafael Bejarano – 20/1
2. Dayatthespa – Ramon Dominguez – 12/1 PICK
3. Up (IRE) – Ryan Moore – 20/1
4. Stopshoppingmaria – Javier Castellano – 8/1
5. Stephanie’s Kitten – John Velazquez – 12/1
6. Sweet Cat – Garrett Gomez – 10/1
7. Royal Bonnie – Cornelio Velazquez – 30/1
8. Hard Not to Like – Mike Smith – 15/1 PICK
9. Pure Gossip – Ryan Curtolo – 12/1
10. Elusive Kate – William Buick – 2/1 PICK
11. Ann of the Dance – Corey Nakatani – 30/1
12. Dear Lavinia – Christophe Lemaire – 30/1
13. Customer Base – Julien Leparoux – 12/1
14. Somali Lemonade – Alex Solis – 3/1 PICK
15. Bourbonstreetgirl – Gary Contessa – Joe Talamo – 30/1
16. Karlovy Vary – George R. Arnold II – Garrett Gomez – 30/1
Somali Lemonade (KY) – Trainer Michael Matz
She is 2 for 2 in her brief career taking her maiden debut at Belmont Park on September 11 going seven furlongs on the turf. Down at Keeneland, she followed up by winning the 1 1/16 miles Grade 3 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes going. Early in races, she is in no hurry to get going, but come the far turn, this filly turns on the jets. Look for another big effort.
2011 Record: 2 Starts 2-0-0 (Won the Grade 3 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland on October 13).
Elusive Kate (KY) – Trainer John Gosden
Missed in her maiden debut, but since has won all four of her races. Heading into this race she has won back to back Group races including the Group 3 Prix Du Calvados – Haras Des Capucines at Deauville and the Group 1 Total Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium Des Pouliches at Longchamps last time out on October 2. She has gonr gate to wire in each and is expected to take the lead in the BC Juvenile Turf. This will be the first time she has dealt with such a large field and their is some expected speed to join her including….
2011 Record: 5 Starts 4-0-0 (Won the Group 1 Total Prix Marcel Boussac – Criterium Des Pouliches at Longschamps and Group 3 Prix Du Calvados – Haras Des Capucines at Deaville).
Stopshoppingmaria (KY) – Trainer Todd Pletcher
Ran 3rd in her debut, losing to My Miss Aurelia (favorite in the Juvenile Fillies) at Saratoga in July. Came back to win by a convincing 9 1/2 lengths in gate to wire fashion just 3 weeks later. Last time out, in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park, she was no match for My Miss Aurelia again. She lost by 5 1/2 lengths. This will be her first time on the turf. Morning line has her as the third choice. I believe she will run well, but I see a couple of others in here that will be better prices and have the experience and results on the turf.
2011 Record: 3 Starts 1-1-1 (Was 2nd in the Grade 1 Frizette Stakes at Belmont Park on October 8).
Sweet Cat (FL) – Trainer Todd Pletcher
This filly, another from the Pletcher barn, came 2nd in her debut at Saratoga on the dirt. The switch to turf second time out did wonders as she defeated a full field of 12 in a maiden special weight race at Saratoga on September 1. Her last was a 2nd to Somali Lemonade in the JPMorgan Chase. She had the lead half way down the stretch but could not hold off her rival and lost by 2 lengths. She has twice done very well in large fields and the switch to turf was the correct decision. Definitely one of the horses to beat, but needs to step up in order to beat Somali.
2011 Record: 3 Starts 1-2-0 (2nd in the Grade 3 JPMorgan Chase Jessamine Stakes at Keeneland).
Dayatthespa (NY) – Trainer Chad Brown
This chestnut filly easily won her open at Saratoga on August 4 in a maiden special weight race. She followed it up with a runner-up effort in the Grade 3 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine. She showed she can sit off a quick pace and still hang around late. She actually had the lead down the stretch, but could not hold off Northern Passion.
2011 Record: 2 Starts 1-1-0 (2nd in the Grade 3 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine on September 17).
Stephanie’s Kitten (KY) – Wayne Catalano
Lost her debut at Arlington Park on July 9 on the all weather surface, but won second time out a little less than a month later on the turf. She shipped to Woodbine and finished 3rd to Northern Passion and Dayatthespa in the G3 Natalma Stakes on the turf. Her latest was back on the all weather and she won the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland. She has run well on the all weather and the turf, but since Churchill Downs is dirt surface, they elected not to try it out for the first time and stick with turf. She has shown a nice kick coming from well off the pace. If she can get a decent pace ahead of her, I wouldn’t be shocked to see her on the board.
2011 Record: 4 Starts 2-0-2 (Won the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes at Keeneland).
Customer Base (KY) – Trainer Thomas Proctor
This Lemon Drop Kid filly is 2 for 2 so far, but hasn’t run against stakes company yet. In addition, both of her wins have come on the all weather surface. She has yet to try the turf. She broke maiden at Del Mar, then won an Allowance race at Keeneland on October 19. She has shown a nice kick from off the pace, not too far back, and if she takes to the Churchill grass, she could be a play in exotic bets.
2011 Record: 2 Starts 2-0-0
Pure Gossip (NY) – Trainer Philip Serpe
She broke her maiden on the dirt at Saratoga in July, then showed no kick in a 4th place effort in the Anne M. Clare Stakes. A switch to the turf was not just a good decision, it was brilliant as she destroyed the field by 6 1/2 lengths in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont Park. She sat just off the leaders, took over the lead as they turned for home and she never let up. If she can possess the same kind of effort here, she could make things interesting.
2011 Record: 3 Starts 2-1-0 (Won the Grade 3 Natalma Stakes at Woodbine).
Hard Not to Like (ON) – Trainer Gail Cox
It’s true, it’s hard not to like a filly that has won 3 of 4 career starts. The only defeat came in a 5th place result in the Natalma Stakes. In that race, which she was favored, she was bumped a couple of times as she was making her move at the top of the stretch. By the time she got moving again, it was too late. That’s the only negative for a horse who comes from behind in a large field. If she wants to challenge in this race, jockey Mike Smith will need to keep her out of harms way. I think he has experience with a female horse with similar racing style. She did come back to win the Cup and Saucer Stakes going 1 1/6 miles. Should get nice odds on this filly as it is rare for a horse out of Woodbine to get respect from the betting community.
2011 Record: 4 Starts 3-0-0 (Won the Cup and Saucer Stakes at Woodbine on October 15).
Up (IRE) – Trainer Aidan O’Brien
Is this a stretch or does Aidan O’Brien know something about this filly that we don’t? Why else would he fly a filly across the Atlantic with only a maiden victory under her belt? Was beaten badly in her debut at Curragh finishing 11th. She didn’t endure any problems during the race. Maybe she was injured as she did not race again for 4 months in another maiden race at Dundalk on September 30. This time, instead of stalking the leaders, she held back and made a move as they turned for home. She took the lead and drew off to win by almost 2 lengths. The positives for her coming into this race, she ran a mile on the turf and against a full field of 13 horses. Same distance as the BC Juvenile Turf and just as many horses.
2011 Record: 2 Starts 1-0-0
My Gi Gi (KY) – Trainer Brian Koriner
She broke her maiden first time out going 7 1/2 furlongs on the Louisiana Downs turf back on August 18. She came back with a narrow head loss in the Happy Ticket Stakes. The winner went gate to wire and she ran out of room. She was shipped to the west coast and ran in the Grade 1 Oak Leaf Stakes at Santa Anita on dirt. She made her move but it was not enough to contend. She finished 4th beaten 3 1/4 lengths for 3rd and 4 1/4 for the whole thing. They bring her back east and also back on the turf. This is not a deep field and she also get Bejarano to ride. If she can improve on her Louisiana Downs performances, she might make a play in the exotic bets.
2011 Record: 3 Starts 1-1-0
Dear Lavinia (KY) – Trainer Jean-Claude Rouget
Won her maiden debut at Deauville on June 30. Followed it up with a 3rd and 2nd in the listed stakes races at Deauville and Craon. Her latest was a win in the Grand Criterium de Bordeaux Stakes at Bordeaux le bouscat on October 13. She has taken the lead in each race, and as you can tell has hit the board in all four starts. She hasn’t faced Group company yet, so it’s hard to tell what she can do in this race. Prefer others based off previous performance.
2011 Record: 4 Starts 2-1-1
Royal Bonnie (KY) – Trainer George Weaver
She broke her maiden first time out at Saratoga in a 1 1/16 miles maiden special weight race. She followed that up with a 2nd place performance in the Grade 3 Miss Grillo Stakes at Belmont Park on October 2. However, she would be disqualified and placed 4th for bumping horses down the stretch.
2011 Record: 4 Starts 1-1-1
Ann of the Dance (KY) – Trainer Martin Wolfson
Broke her maiden in the claiming ranks at Arlington Park in June. Her follow up was a win in Allowance Optional Claiming in August. Her first attempt in graded company came in the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes. She came from back of the 9 horse field to finish 3rd beaten just 1/2 length for 2nd and another 1/2 length for 1st. She was shipped to Keeneland to race in the Grade 1 Darley Alcibiades Stakes and finished un-inspired 10th. She was never a factor. Between that effort and the fact she hasn’t been on the turf, her odds could be more than 50/1 in this race.
2011 Record: 4 Starts 2-0-1