The 137th running of the Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday May 7, 2011 in Louisville, Kentucky. The historic twin spires at Churchill Downs will yet again be on full display for the whole world to see.
KENTUCKY DERBY CONTENDERS – TOP 10
All the prep races are now in the books and everyday horses are dropping out of the running. As of now, this is who we feel are the final Top 10 heading into the Kentucky Derby.
1. Dialed-In
The Nick Zito trained colt sired by Mineshaft put himself on the map late in 2010 with a fantastic come from behind win in his maiden debut at Churchill Downs. He came back with another last to first victory in the Grade 3 Holy Bull stakes at Gulfstream on January 30. After failing to win in an Allowance race last time up, there were some questions whether he was for real or not. A short field and quick fractions allowed this colt to display his huge late kick in winning the Florida Derby by a head over stubborn 60-1 Shackleford. The doubts were put to rest. Bring on the Derby and the additional 1/8 of a mile.
2. Uncle Mo
With the underlying doubt after his subpar effort in the Wood Memorial, this Indian Charlie colt drops from the #1 position for the first time. Will Pletcher be able to cure the infection? Will he be strong enough and ready come May 7?
3. Mucho Macho Man
It looked as if he was ready to take over the lead as they turned for home, but he couldn’t seem to get passed the eventual winner Pants On Fire. We later learned that he lost a shoe during the race. With the way he was ready to take over the Louisiana Derby (lost shoe) and his impressive victory in the Grade 2 Risen Star at Fairgrounds on February 19, I still believe this colt will be dangerous in the Derby. Up next: the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 7.
4. Soldat
His effort in the Florida Derby was shocking since many, including myself thought it was a two horse race between him and Dialed In. No word out of the McLaughlin camp if anything happened to the colt. He is too talented to let one race ruin what he has accomplished so far. We should assume he will be ready to go to.
5. ArchArchArch
He ran very well in the Arkansas Derby, which many felt was the strongest Derby prep race. He won the Southwest Stakes (G3) earlier in the year, came back to finish third in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and now has a Grade 1 under his belt. Has only been worse than third once in six tries. He showed he can run long and will be in the thick of things come May.
6. Comma to the Top:
His effort in the Santa Anita Derby certainly shows he will not go down without a fight. He just about went gate to wire but couldn’t hold on long enough as he lost by a head to Midnight Interlude. I believe with an abundance of speed coming into the Derby, this colt would be best to sit off the pace and save for a nice run down the stretch. A similar setup to what he did in the CashCall Futurity (G1).
7. Master of Hounds
He made one trip to the US and that was in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. He didn’t run very well. He didn’t run again until making the switch to dirt in the 1 3/16 miles United Arab Emirates (UAE) Derby in Dubai. He ran extremely well losing by a nose to Kwahlah. He has now been confirmed to make the trip to Kentucky. The fact that he has run a similar distance already, gives him a edge experience wise against a wide open depleted field.
8. Midnight Interlude
His surprising victory in the Santa Anita sent a message to the horse racing World. Anyone can win the Kentucky Derby! He has a hall of fame trainer in Bob Baffert, and you know he will be ready come post time.
9. Animal Kingdom
He may not have beat a strong field in the Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park, but the last to first effort certainly opened up some eyes on the capabilities of this colt. There will be many coming from well off in this race, so he will need his best effort.
10. Nehro
It took this colt three tries to break his maiden at Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park, but he has responded well with come from behind second place finishes in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derby. My only concern is the short time in between LA Derby and AK Derby (21 days) then from the AK Derby to the Kentucky Derby (21 days). Will he be fresh enough?
Other Horses Worth Consideration
Nehro
It took this colt three tries to break his maiden at Fairgrounds and Oaklawn Park, but he has responded well with come from behind second place finishes in the Louisiana and Arkansas Derby. My only concern is the short time in between LA Derby and AK Derby (21 days) then from the AK Derby to the Kentucky Derby (21 days). Will he be fresh enough?
Decisive Moment: He hasn’t won a graded stakes race yet, but he is seven of eight in his career. He has the earnings to qualify and will most likely be a long shot on Derby day.
Pants on Fire: One of a few speed horses that will be entered into the Derby will have his hands full on the front end. He went gate to wire in the Louisiana Derby going 1 1/8 miles, but the additional 1/8 miles and tough competition will most likely wear him down.











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In 1956, State specific breeding started to be recorded. In the last 55 years, here is the breakdown of where Kentucky Derby winners were bred:
Kentucky
38 (2010 – Super Saver)
Florida
6 (1997 – Silver Charm)
Virginia
3 (1993 – Sea Hero)
Pennsylvania
2 (2004 – Smarty Jones)
New York
1 (2003 – Funny Cide)
Canada
1 (1983 – Sunny’s Halo)
Illinois
1 (1970 – Dust Commander)
Maryland
1 (1966 – Kauai King)
California
1 (1962 – Decidely)
England
1 (1959 – Tomy Lee)
2011 Kentucky Derby Contenders were bred in the following states:
KENTUCKY
Uncle Mo, Soldat, The Factor, Premier Pegasus, Stay Thirsty, Dialed In, Rogue Romance, To Honor and Serve, Brethren, Santiva, Jaycito
FLORIDA
Mucho Macho Man, Comma to the Top, Flashpoint, Gourmet Dinner
PENNSYLVANIA
Anthony’s Cross
The Kentucky Derby has been won by a home bred for six years running. As you can tell, many of the current contenders are from Kentucky, but there are some solid horses from other States who can snap this streak. It has been 7 years since a Pennsylvania bred (2004 Smarty Jones) won the Derby. Anthony’s Cross seems to be the only legitimate threat at this point. It has been 13 years since a Florida bred (Silver Charm 1997) won the Derby. There are four legitimate threats this year. Where are you California, New York and Virginia?!
Pulling for the 2nd Canadian bred winner this year…Elite Alex….we’ll know after April 16th.
Disclaimer: I’m not a fan of Canada (aka. loft above the real party)…just a big fan of EA.
The extra distance would certainly help him. He just needs to get there first!
Updated Odds for the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby (as of April 4, 2011):
Uncle Mo: 2 – 1
Dialed In: 4 – 1
Premier Pegasus: 5 – 1
The Factor: 6 – 1
To Honor and Serve: 9 – 1
Jaycito: 12 – 1
Soldat: 12 – 1
Mucho Macho Man: 15 – 1
Stay Thirsty: 15 – 1
Sway Away: 15 – 1
Santiva: 25 – 1
Pants On Fire: 30 – 1
Animal Kingdom:35 – 1
Silver Medallion: 35 – 1
The Appeal: 35 – 1
Anthonys Cross: 40 – 1
Shackelford: 45 – 1
Elite Alex: 50 – 1
Nehro: 50 – 1
Norman Asbjornson: 50 – 1
Bench Points: 55 – 1
Archarcharch: 60 – 1
J Ps Gusto: 60 – 1
Brethren: 65 – 1
Crossed the Line: 65 – 1
Decisive Moment: 65 – 1
Flashpoint: 65 – 1
Master of Hounds: 65 – 1
Twice The Appeal: 65 – 1
Alternation: 75 – 1
Beer Meister: 75 – 1
Biondetti: 75 – 1
Dance City: 75 – 1
Lagoon of Diamonds: 75 – 1
Ruler On Ice: 75 – 1
Saratoga Red: 75 – 1
Smoke It Right: 75 – 1
Tobys Corner: 85 – 1
Comma to the Top: 100 – 1
Crimson China: 100 – 1
Jakesam: 100 – 1
Calebs Posse: 105 – 1
Positive Response: 115 – 1
Turbulent Descent (F): 175 – 1
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