Below you will find the last 20 Kentucky Derby winners along with their running style, number of starts prior to the Derby as well as how they finished in the race leading up to the Derby. Stats and analysis to follow.
2011 – Animal Kingdom (came from far behind, four starts prior to Derby)
Race prior to the Kentucky Derby was 1st in the Vinery Racing Spiral Stakes (G3)
2010 – Super Saver (came from far behind, six starts)
2nd Arkansas Derby (G1)
2009 – Mine That Bird (came from far behind, eight starts)
4th in Sunland Derby (G3)
2008 – Big Brown (off the pace, three starts)
Won the Florida Derby (G1)
2007 – Street Sense (came from far behind, seven starts)
2nd in Toyota Blue Grass Stakes (G1)
2006 – Barbaro (off the pace, five starts)
Won the Florida Derby (G1)
2005 – Giacomo (came from far behind, seven starts)
4th in Santa Anita Derby (G1)
2004 – Smarty Jones (off the pace, six starts)
Won the Arkansas Derby (G1)
2003 – Funny Cide (off the pace, six starts)
2nd in Wood Memorial (G1)
2002 – War Emblem (set pace, seven starts)
Won the Illinois Derby (G2)
2001 – Monarchos (came from far behind, six starts)
2nd in the Wood Memorial (G1)
2000 – Fusaichi Pegasus (came from far behind, five starts)
Won the Wood Memorial (G1)
1999 – Charismatic (off the pace, 14 starts)
Won the Coolmore Lexington Stakes (G2)
1998 – Real Quiet (off the pace, 12 starts)
2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)
1997 – Silver Charm (off the pace, six starts)
2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (G1)
1996 – Grindstone (came from far behind, five starts)
2nd in the Arkansas Derby
1995 – Thunder Gulch (off the pace, nine starts)
4th in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2)
1994 – Go for Gin (set the pace, nine starts)
2nd in the Wood Memorial
1993 – Sea Hero (came from far behind, 10 starts)
4th in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2)
1992 – Lil E. Tee (came from far behind, eight starts)
2nd in the Arkansas Derby (G1)
As you can tell, it is rare for a horse to take the lead and remain there for the entire 1 1/4 miles race. Out of the last 20 years, just two horses (War Emblem and Go for Gin) were able to perform this feat. That’s just 10% of the time. Eight horses came from off the pace (40%) and 10 came from far behind (50%). If you are into statistics and look at these numbers, it is highly unlikely that this year’s pacesetters will be able to make it three horses over the last 21 years.
So how did War Emblem and Go for Gin do it?
War Emblem was allowed to get the lead and was uncontested the entire way. He led by 1 1/2 lengths from the start and eventually won by 4. It was the same for Go fir Gin. He led by 1/2 length early, then 1 1/2 lengths and 4 lengths. He set decent fractions of 22.97, 47.21 and 11:11.98 for the first six furlongs. However, as the race went along the fractions became slower and there wasn’t a horse who could make up enough ground. He would win by 2 lengths.
This year, it’s expected that three horses will want the lead. Hansen, Bodemeister and Trinniberg will not just fight for the front end, but post quick fractions in the process. I have a hard time believing that one of these three will get an early advantage.
In the other stat from above, we have the number of career starts for each of the Kentucky Derby winners and the average number was just over 7. The reason we included this as a statistic is many feel Bodemeister doesn’t have enough starts under his belt as well as not having started as a two year old. He has four career starts heading into the Derby and all four since January. In the last 20 years, only Big Brown and last year’s winner Animal Kingdom have had four or less starts. I don’t believe that will be his issue heading into the race. As he showed in the Arkansas Derby, he is a solid horse, ready for primetime. He followed up the runner-up performance to Creative Cause in the San Felipe Stakes (G2) in impressive fashion. The issue with him will be speed. I believe he, Hansen and Trinniberg will get tired late and be passed at some point down the stretch.
After reviewing the 40% of those who sat off the pace, not one was in the top three after the first 1/2 mile. The average position after the first 1/2 mile was 5th-6th. For the the 50% that came from far behind, the average position after 1/2 mile was 15th. The Derby is not speed friendly and these stats definitely show it. Take them for what it’s worth, but it’s hard to go in favor of a 10% winning percentage.
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