A field off 11 three year old colts and geldings will continue their quest to the Kentucky Derby this Saturday at Fair Grounds race course.
Risen Star Stakes (G2) – $300,000 – 1 1/16 miles – Dirt
1. Afford (KY) – Shaun Bridgmohan – 116 – Greg Geier
2. Optimizer (KY) – Carlos Marquez, Jr. – 116 – D. Wayne Lukas
3. Mr. Bowling (KY) – Robby Albarado – 120 – Larry Jones
4. Z Dager (KY) – Shane Sellers – 116 – Steven Asmussen
5. Ted’s Folly (OK) – Ramsey Zimmerman – 120 – Wilson Brown
6. Adena’s Chance (FL) – Richard Eramia – 116 – Gennadi Dorochenko
7. Hero of Order (KY) – James Graham – 116 – Gennadi Dorochenko
8. El Padrino (KY) – Javier Castellano – 116 – Todd Pletcher
9. Mark Valeski (KY) – Rosie Napravnik – 116 – Larry Jones
10. Shared Property (KY) – Leandro Goncalves – 120 – Thomas Amoss
11. Tizanexpense (KY) – Miguel Mena – 116 – Michael Maker
The only horse to come into the Risen Star off a stakes win is the Larry Jones trained Mr. Bowling. After winning the Dover Stakes at Delaware Park on October 8, the Istan colt finished 3rd in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs on October 30. Jones gave him a couple of months off before training him again. His first race back was on January 21, where he won the Grade 3 LeComte Stakes at Fair Grounds. He held the lead by a length for much of the stretch until Z Dager came on strong late. Mr. Bowling won by a head. Z Dager is in the Risen Star along with the horse who was a length back in the LeComte, Shared Property.
Z Dager, a Steven Asmussen trained horse and owned by Zayat Stables, will be tough company once again. This will be his third career start, but his first two were impressive. He handily won his maiden debut on December 15, then his 2nd place finish to Mr. Bowling last time out is a sign that he is a tough competitor and will be a threat. Look for him to stalk the leaders, and make a move midway down the lane.
Shared Property, who as I mentioned finished 3rd in the LeComte Stakes, might be better suited for the longer distances of the Derby and Belmont Stakes. He has won 2 of 4 races including the Grade 3 Arlington-Washington Futurity at Arlington Park. He’s only missed the top three once. That was a 6th place finish in the Grade 1 Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland on October 8. He is a late runner who hasn’t been able to be a serious threat at the 1 1/16 miles distance. Despite losing by just a little over a length to the two above in the LeComte, you just know when stretched out to 1 1/8 miles and 1 1/4 miles, we will see the best of this horses ability. If the pace can be quick early on this weekend, he could have a chance. He will be far back early. I don’t see it happening.
Todd Pletcher brings his Chestnut Pulpit colt El Padrino to the Risen Star Stakes after winning an Allowance Optional Claiming $75,00 in impressive fashion. He sat off the leaders early, then chased down Take Charge Indy who held a three lengths lead at the top of the stretch, to draw away and win by two. Prior to that, he finished 3rd in the Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct on November 26. He has yet to be out of the top three in four career starts. He should be in contention once again.
The D. Wayne Lukas trained Optimizer has gone backwards since winning his maiden debut, finishing 2nd in the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes and 3rd in the Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity. He has finished 8th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 4th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2) and most recently 6th in the Smarty Jones Stakes on January 16 at Oaklawn Park. We saw last week that Drill turned things around for Bob Baffert after a stretch of subpar efforts. Can this colt do the same thing? He is training like he should. Since the last race, he has 3 bullet works.
Two colts come into the race with perfect 2-0 records, both with their maiden wins and an Allowance Optional Claiming as a follow up. The first is the other Larry Jones trained horse Mark Valeski. The other is Tizanexpense trained by Michael Maker. Both colts are training very well. Tizanexpense is coming off a bullet work going 5 furlongs in 1:00 flat (ranked 1/37 on the day) and Mark Valeski posted bullet two back going 6 furlongs in 1:12.3 (ranked 1/10 on the day). His last work was 5 furlongs in 1:00.3 (ranked 3/61). This will be the first time Mark Valeski will go longer than six furlongs. Tizanexpense has gone 1 mile and 70 yards in each of his two races.
PREDICTION: This is a good race where a handful of horses have the ability to win. On form, there is not a horse who truly likes to get the lead each and every time. The only one horse who has gone to lead and won is Tizanexpense. If he can get the lead like he did in his maiden opener, he could possibly steal this one. Sitting right behind him will be the likes of Z Dager, El Padrino, Mark Valeski and Mr. Bowling, so he would need to save energy for the latter stages. I like the way El Padrino caught up and pulled away from Take Charge Indy last time out. I have him to win. I see Tizanexpense, Z Dager, Mr. Bowling and Mark Valeski battling for the next three spots. My exacta box wager will be El Padrino and Z Dager.
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