It’s an interesting phenomenon why two year old male Eclipse Award winners don’t experience similar success at three as they did at the age of two. Some go on to win graded stakes races, but it’s quite rare for them to win the Kentucky Derby or a triple crown race for that matter.
Just once in the last 33 years has a two year old male champion gone on to win the Kentucky Derby. Quite remarkable considering the talented horses who’ve won the prestigious award. We breakdown the past winners and how they performed during their three year old season and career.
2012: Shanghai Bobby
Went 5 for 5 including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) as a two year old, but lost in his first race as a three year old in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) at Gulfstream Park. Will he be able to buck the trend and win the 2013 Kentucky Derby?
2011: Hansen
Won all three at two, but he too finished 2nd in the Holy Bull Stakes first time out at three. He went on to the Gotham Stakes (G3) and Iowa Derby (G3). He finished 9th in the Kentucky Derby.
2010: Uncle Mo
Won all three races at two including the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He won his first race at three, the Timely Writer Stakes at Gulfstream Park. He finished 3rd in the Resorts World New York Casino Wood Memorial Stakes (G1) at Aqueduct before developing a digestive disease. After missing almost five months, he would win just one of his next three races, the Kelso Handicap (G2) at Belmont Park.
2009: Lookin At Lucky
Won 5 of 6 races at the age of two. His only loss to Vale of York (IRE) by a head in the BC Juvenile. He won four graded stakes races at three including the Preakness Stakes (G1) and Haskell Invitational Stakes (G1).
2008: Midshipman
Won 3 of 4 at two including the BC Juvenile. Missed 11 months after that win to 2 of his last 4 races. None at the stakes level.
2007: War Pass
Won 4 of 4 at two including the BC Juvenile, but his only win at three came in an Allowance race. He finished 7th in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) and 2nd in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G1). That would be his last race.
2006: Street Sense
Here he is! The only horse in 33 years to win the Kentucky Derby while being crowned as two year old male champion. He only won 2 of 5 races at two but one of course was the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. At three, he won the Tampa Bay Derby, Kentucky Derby (G1), Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and Travers Stakes (G1) at Saratoga. He ended his career with a 4th place performance as the favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. Curlin easily won by 4 1/2 lengths.
2005: Stevie Wonderboy
Won 3 of 5 at two including the Juvenile. His first and only race at three came in a 2nd place effort in the San Rafael Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. He was retired afterwards.
2004: Declan’s Moon
Won all 4 races at two, but one was not the BC Juvenile. He did not run in the race. It was won by European invader Wilko. Declan’s Moon won the Hollywood Futurity (G1) and Del Mar Futurity (G2). At three, he won his first race at three, the Santa Catalina Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita. That would be his last graded stakes win. Over the next three years, he only won 1 out of 13 races. It was an Allowance score.
2003: Action This Day
Won 2 of 3 races at two including the Juvenile. He finished 4th in his three year old debut, the Sham Stakes. He didn’t win a race at three in six tries. He ran 6th in the Kentucky Derby.
2002: Vindication
Won all 4 races at two years of age including the Juvenile, but never raced again.
2001: Johannesburg
Won all 6 six races in Europe at two and won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his only US start. He finished 2nd in his first start as a three in Europe. He returned to finish 8th in the Kentucky Derby. His last race was a 9th at Royal Ascot.
2000: Macho Uno
Won 3 of 4 races at two including the BC Juvenile. He bypassed the triple crown races and won the Pennsylvania Derby (G3) at Philadelphia Park. His only other graded stakes win came at four when he won the Massachusetts Handicap (G2) at Suffolk Downs.
1999: Anees
Won 2 of 4 races including the Juvenile. He finished 3rd, 4th and 13th respectively in the San Felipe Stakes (G2), Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby.
1998: Answer Lively
Won 4 of 7 races at two including the BC Juvenile. He didn’t win in 7 races at three. He finished 10th in the Kentucky Derby.
1997: Favorite Trick
Had an incredible 8 for 8 record at the age of two. He won seven stakes races including the Juvenile at Hollywood Park. He won the Swale Stakes (G3) to begin his three year old season, but finished 3rd in the Arkansas Derby (G1) and 8th in the Kentucky Derby. He did win the Jim Dandy Stakes (G2) and Breeders’ Cup Mile (G2). He retired at the end of the year.
1996: Boston Harbor
Won 6 of 7 races as a two year old including the Juvenile. His only start at three came as a 4th place finish in the Santa Catalina Stakes. He was retired.
1995: Maria’s Mon
Won 4 fo 5 races including the Futurity Stakes (G1) and Champagne Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. He missed 9 months and returned to finish 2nd in an Allowance and 6th in the Jim Dandy Stakes.
1994: Timber Country
Won 4 of 7 races including the Champagne Stakes and BC Juvenile. He finished 3rd in the San Rafael Stakes, 2nd in San Felipe Stakes, 4th in Santa Anita Derby and 3rd in the Kentucky Derby. He won the Preakness Stakes. He was retired after that race.
1993: Dehere
Won 5 of 7 races at two not including the BC Juvenile. He finished 8th in that race. He did win the Hopeful Stakes (G1) and Champagne Stakes. He finished 2nd in his first start as a three year old in an Allowance race, then won the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) at Gulfstream Park. He retired after that start.
1992: Gilded Time
Won all four starts at two including the Juvenile. He missed nearly a year before returning to finish 3rd in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1) at Santa Anita. His last race was 6th in the Malibu Stakes (G2).
1991: Arazi
European Invader won 7 of 8 races at two including the BC Juvenile. Won a stakes races back in Europe to kick off his three year old season. He returned to finish 8th in the Kentucky Derby. After two unsuccessful races back in Europe, he returned to the US where he finished 11th in the BC Mile.
1990: Fly So Free
Won 4 of 6 races at two including the Champagne Stakes and BC Juvenile. He won the Hutcheson Stakes (G2), Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2) and Florida Derby (G1) at Gulfstream Park. He finished 2nd in the Blue Grass Stakes (G2) at Keeneland before placing 5th in the Kentucky Derby. He would win 3 more graded stakes races over his next 22 races.
1989: Rhythm
Won 3 of 5 races including the BC Juvenile. His three year old campaign did not fare as well. He finished 7th in the Hutcheson, 10th in the Fountain of Youth and 5th in the Gotham Stakes. He bypassed the tripe crown races. He did win the Colin Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park before winning the Travers Stakes (G1). That was his last win. He ran seven more times and was retired in the Summer of his four year old season.
1988: Easy Goer
One of the best horses to not win the Kentucky Derby. At two, he won 5 of 6 races including the Champagne Stakes. He did lose to Is It True in the BC Juvenile. At three, he did everything he could to win every race. One thing, he ran into Sunday Silence. He won the Gotham Stakes, Wood Memorial, but lost close ones to Sunday Silence in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness. He enacted revenge and won the Belmont Stakes. He also won the Whitney Handicap (G1), Travers Stakes (G1), Woodward Handicap (G1) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) before losing another tough one to Sunday Silence in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. One of the best horses to win Top Two Year Old Male and go on to bigger and better things in his career.
1987: Forty Niner
Won 5 of 6 races at two including the Breeders’ Futurity, Champagne Stakes and Futurity Stakes. At three, he won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Lafayette Stakes while finishing 2nd in the Hutcheson Stakes, Florida Derby, Lexington Stakes and Kentucky Derby. He finished 7th in the Preakness. He also won the Haskell Invitational Stakes, Travers Stakes and NYRA Mile Handicap before ending his career with a 4th place result in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
1986: Capote
Won 3 of 4 races including the Juvenile. He did not win in 6 races at three. He finished 16th in the Kentucky Derby.
1985: Tasso
Won 5 of 7 races races at the age of two including the BC Juvenile. He won his first start at three in the Manassa Mauler Stakes at Aqueduct. He bypassed the triple crown. Won just 3 of his next 16 races. Two allowances and a win in the El Cajon Stakes at Del Mar.
1984: Chief’s Crown
Won 6 of 9 races at two including Saratoga Special Stakes, Hopeful Stakes, Cowdin Stakes, Norfolk Stakes and BC Juvenile. Very similar path to Shanghai Bobby. However, this colt won his three year old debut. He won the Swale Stakes, then Flamingo Stakes (G1) and Blue Grass Stakes (G1) at Keeneland. He finished 3rd in the Kentucky Derby, 2nd in Preakness and 3rd in Belmont. He also won the Travers Stakes and Marlboro Cup (G1).
1983: Devil’s Bag
Won all 5 races at two including the Champagne Stakes and Laurel Futurity. Won the Flamingo Prep to start his three year old season, but finished 4th in the Flamingo Stakes (G1). Won an Allowance and the Derby Trial before being retired.
1982: Roving Boy
Won last 5 of his 7 starts at age two including Del Mar Futurity, Norfolk Stakes and Hollywood Futurity. He missed 10 months and returned to finish 2nd in an Allowance. His final career start was a win in the Alibhai Handicap (G3) at Santa Anita.
1981: Deputy Minister
Won 8 of 9 races in his first year including the Laurel Futurity (G1) and Young America Stakes (G1) at the Meadowlands. He finished 5th and 9th in Allowance races to start his three year old season. Over the next couple of years, he would win 4 of 11 races including the Gulfstream Sprint Championship Handicap, Donn Handicap (G2) at Gulfstream and Tom Fool Stakes (G3) at Belmont Park.
1980: Lord Avie
Won 5 of 10 races at two including the Champagne Stakes and Young America Stakes (G1) at Meadowlands. He started off his three year old season with a win in the Hutcheson Stakes. Finished 3rd in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, then came back to win the Florida Derby. He missed the triple crown due to injury. He returned later in the year to win an Allowance, finish 2nd in the Haskell and 3rd in the Travers. He retired shortly after.
1979: Rockhill Native
Won 6 of 9 races at two including the Sapling and Futurity Stakes (G1). He won 4 of 6 races leading up to the Kentucky Derby including the Blue Grass Stakes. He finished 5th in the Derby and 3rd in the Belmont. That would be his last race.
* For the past 33 two year old male champions, only Street Sense went on to win the Kentucky Derby.
* In those 33 years, there were 99 chances to win a triple crown race. Only 4 times did a two year old champion win a triple crown race.
Lookin at Lucky – Preakness 2009
Street Sense – Kentucky Derby 2006
Timber County – Preakness 1994
Easy Goer – Belmont Stakes 1988
So through all of this data and stats brings us back to our current champion Shanghai Bobby. His first defeat came in his first start as a three year old. Is it shocking? Well, yes because he was previously undefeated, but in the big picture and looking at the stats from above, it shouldn’t surprise us.
Shanghai Bobby could go on to have a solid career by winning graded stakes races. However, if history continues to repeat itself, don’t expect him to challenge for the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes or Belmont Stakes. The odds are not in his favor.
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